Journal of African Development

This study aimed to analyze the impact of economic complexity on reshaping the trade performance of four Arab countries—Algeria, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia, and Morocco—during the period 2000–2022. The study employed the Unconditional Quantile Regression for Panel Data (RIF-Panel Quantile Regression) methodology, allowing the measurement of the impact of economic complexity indicators across different levels of trade performance rather than focusing solely on average effects.

The analysis focused on three main dimensions of trade performance: total exports, high-technology exports, and export market penetration. Economic Complexity, Trade Complexity, and Research Complexity indicators were incorporated as key explanatory variables.

The results revealed that the relationship between economic complexity and trade performance in Arab countries is nonlinear and conditional upon both the level of trade performance and the type of complexity indicator considered. The impact of trade complexity remained limited in the lower and middle quantiles of total exports but became more pronounced in the upper quantile. The findings also showed that economic complexity contributed to supporting high-technology exports during the early stages of industrial development, whereas the negative effect of research complexity highlighted a gap between scientific research outputs and the requirements of manufacturing and export activities.

Regarding market penetration, the results indicated that trade complexity was more effective when supported by an enabling institutional and commercial framework. The study recommends adopting selective industrial and trade policies that strengthen the link between scientific research and manufacturing while enhancing product quality and promoting qualitative integration into global value chains